New Website Predicts Likelihood Of Cyber Attacks Between Nations

guest · Oct 15, 2020

New Website Predicts Likelihood Of Cyber Attacks Between Nations
October 14, 2020
https://releases.jhu.edu/2020/10/14...-likelihood-of-cyber-attacks-between-nations/

Where in the world might the next cyberattack between nations take place?

A new online database developed by a team of Johns Hopkins University computer scientists and international studies students predicts that there is an “extremely high likelihood” of a Russian cyberattack on Ukraine.
The second most likely? The United States against Iran.

The Cyber Attack Predictive Index (CAPI) devised by computer science professor Anton Dahbura along with cybersecurity lecturer Terry Thompson and former undergraduate Divya Rangarajan provides a predictive analysis of nations most likely to engage in the surreptitious strategy waged with keyboards, code and destructive malware rather than soldiers, tanks and airplanes.
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The higher the total score the more likely a nation is to attack. The 12 nation-on-nation scenarios scored on the website range from the very low likelihood of India attacking China to four tied as the third most likely situations: China against the United States, Israel against Iran, Russia against the United States and the United States against Russia.
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The website also provides several case studies used to devise the scoring system. The two highest scoring incidents were the cyberattack Russia simultaneously launched with its 2008 invasion of neighboring Georgia, and the STUXNET malware the United States and Israel unleashed on an Iranian nuclear facility.
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Cyber Conflict Around the Globe

As more countries develop cyber capabilities, cyber attacks are likely to become more common in international relations.
Our goal is to present an approach that yields a tool to help understand why nation-states engage in cyber conflict, and also to serve as a barometer for predicting future cyber attacks.

The CAPI Board of project stakeholders meets regularly to discuss hot-spots around the world that have implications for likely cyber conflict and to present additions, deletions, and updates to the CAPI Heat Index..
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New Website Predicts Likelihood Of Cyber Attacks Between Nations

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