A Drone Scholar Answers the Big Questions About Amazon's Plans

Discussion in 'hardware' started by ronjor, Dec 3, 2013.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. ronjor

    ronjor Global Moderator

    Joined:
    Jul 21, 2003
    Posts:
    57,740
    Location:
    Texas
  2. Bill_Bright

    Bill_Bright Registered Member

    Joined:
    Jun 29, 2007
    Posts:
    2,270
    Location:
    Nebraska, USA
    A good read. I really don't see front door home delivery coming soon because that would mean flight paths going every where. I would also worry about theft. It is one thing for packages stolen off front porches (which already happens) but what about packages left in the middle of a driveway? That would be pretty easy pickings for "drone watchers".

    And what about folks who live in apartments?

    But I can see delivery from huge regional Amazon distribution centers (or "fulfillment" centers, as they call them) to local post offices or UPS/FedEx depots (or JimmyJohn's ;)) where they can then go out for same-day delivery.
     
  3. Keyboard_Commando

    Keyboard_Commando Registered Member

    Joined:
    Mar 6, 2009
    Posts:
    690
    Another much publicized gimmick from our NWO/Corporate bedfellows - condition the American people to accept the tools of a looming tyranny.

    It's just a fake story. Anyone switched on to the media manipulation right now can see it is. They want you accept the weaponized Police version hovering over your home.
     
  4. Dave0291

    Dave0291 Registered Member

    Joined:
    Nov 17, 2013
    Posts:
    553
    Location:
    U.S
    Nonsense: http://www.wired.com/business/2013/12/amazon-drone/

    My take on it is that if there are commercial drones used for such purposes, it will be in such a limited capacity as to not make the legal and financial issues worth it. Of course the gentleman in the first post is going to give an optimistic view, his company is in the drone business. Between government interference and logistics, it just isn't going to happen the way it is being presented. Like smart watches and other "waves of the future", sometimes neat ideas are just that, ideas.
     
  5. treehouse786

    treehouse786 Registered Member

    Joined:
    Jun 6, 2010
    Posts:
    1,388
    Location:
    Lancashire
    wouldn't criminals just easily shoot, net and knock the drones from the sky and grab the items?

    also, i have a colleague who is actually preparing for the zombie apocalypse, told him that the rise of the machines is a more feasible reality than the rise of the dead

    one way that we could ~ Snipped by SKYNET ~
     
    Last edited: Dec 4, 2013
  6. Dave0291

    Dave0291 Registered Member

    Joined:
    Nov 17, 2013
    Posts:
    553
    Location:
    U.S
    Supposedly they would come equipped with cameras. With that and the added and required GPS involved, which a bullet might not destroy, I can't imagine too many people getting away with it.

    If your friend understood what a real zombie would have to go through, they wouldn't fear it. :D Said disaster would last a few days at most before nature kicked in.
     
    Last edited: Dec 4, 2013
  7. Bill_Bright

    Bill_Bright Registered Member

    Joined:
    Jun 29, 2007
    Posts:
    2,270
    Location:
    Nebraska, USA
    Geez. Not a little paranoid are you?

    Fake story? Not hardly. Do your homework before making such claims. 60 Minutes broke the story and after the Lara Logan issue, they are going to be sure of their facts before airing.
    NO! If that is what you see, then you have blinders on and are only seeing what you want to see. I suppose we did not land on the moon (6 times!) and Kennedy is still alive too! :blink:

    That was brought up as a concern, but shooting guns in to the air is already a crime and would likely attract some attention whether shooting at nothing, a bird or a drone.

    Sure dumb criminals will net and grab, but it would be better, I would think, to wait until after the drone has left, and "the coast is clear" before grabbing the package.
     
  8. treehouse786

    treehouse786 Registered Member

    Joined:
    Jun 6, 2010
    Posts:
    1,388
    Location:
    Lancashire
    I don't think the items will have GPS chips in them seeing as that's what the criminals will take. CCTV is already everywhere, nothing a balaclava cant handle.

    can't see it being a issue at first due to novelty/rarity but should the drones ever become a part of daily life say in 50 years time, then i can totally see drone robberies happening every week. just a little thought i had
     
  9. Dave0291

    Dave0291 Registered Member

    Joined:
    Nov 17, 2013
    Posts:
    553
    Location:
    U.S
    It is a valid concern, Treehouse. Obviously legislation and regulation is going to have to be updated for these advances. And so far, that hasn't even happened for our 20+ year old Internet.
     
  10. Bill_Bright

    Bill_Bright Registered Member

    Joined:
    Jun 29, 2007
    Posts:
    2,270
    Location:
    Nebraska, USA
    Already in the works - not saying it will be approved for home deliveries but it is illegal to steal something not belonging to you, and it is illegal to shoot things out of the sky (at least without the necessary hunting permits).

    I think Amazon is doing it right - they are aiming for the works but most likely will have to settle for something less - like near instant delivery to some smaller local distribution center.

    We (consumers) are the ones demanding instant gratification. We want it now - if not yesterday.

    "New" rules and regulations are not the problem with the Internet. The problem is again "we" - in this case, taxpayers - are unwilling to fund enforcement of the current rules and regulations. Of course another problem is 3rd world countries with corrupt leaders who have no desire to enforce existing UN and EU laws, even though these countries are member countries and as such, are supposed to abide by those laws.
     
  11. Keyboard_Commando

    Keyboard_Commando Registered Member

    Joined:
    Mar 6, 2009
    Posts:
    690
    Well Bill, you picked this wacko story apart yourself in your first post. I can't imagine for a second that Amazon could afford to have goods in the air and delivered with such risks to their profits and knock their ability to offer customer satisfaction.

    There is no way this is logistically feasible. You have pilot errors, technological failure, criminal opportunities , weather hazards, ... it goes on and on. Amazon doesn't handle its own delivery of goods. They use 3rd party distribution. And there isn't a distribution partner in the whole damn world that would touch this with a bargepole, because, until the customer has signed off the package as received, the distributor is liable for its welfare.

    And how does one attract the customers attention when hovering over their house (as the pilot of a drone) ... maybe a Hellfire missile or two into the lawn might alert them to come out and sign for the parcel. I'm kidding, Bill.

    Amazon delivery policy is for every parcel to be signed on delivery. Either by the consignee or a neighbour. They no longer allow *safe place* storage (I'm in UK), or in this case, a drone just dumping somewhere at the location. So you do have yet another hurdle. How does the drone operator attract the attention of a neighbour to sign if the consignee is out. lol. You can't beat man on the ground hustling the neighbours face to face to get rid of the damn parcel.

    It's so obviously not going to be of any use for a casual delivery of, say toothpaste, for instance. You'd be surprised how many of Amazon's sold items are of that type, now. I work in distribution so this is all nonsense, to me.

    I stand by what I said. This is the nicey nicey face of drones attempt. To give them a softer rep. I am concerned about the more sinister usages going on around the world ... this whole story gives them a foot inside the door, your door.

    HEY it's Christmas. It sure does stirr up conversation about Amazon. ZING
     
  12. SirDrexl

    SirDrexl Registered Member

    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2012
    Posts:
    545
    Location:
    USA
    While I too thought of the notion that packages could get stolen, I'm not so sure.

    First of all, the thief would have to happen to see the drone in the air and follow it to its destination. It would be like trying to track down a helicopter. And even if you could shoot it down without attracting attention, you'd have to figure out where it landed, hope you get to the package first, and hope you didn't break whatever it is when it fell.

    Second, since these things are designed to show up quickly, customers won't be using this service to drop off packages they intend to pick up later. It will be like ordering a pizza - you'll be watching for it and even more closely since you'll probably have a means to track it in real-time. Domino's has a tracker but the last notification is that it's out for delivery. This thing will probably let you know within a few seconds. Even apartment dwellers can get outside to wait for it, and it won't be a long wait.

    It seems to me the most feasible way for packages to be stolen is if the criminal somehow knows a package was ordered, can get to the address soon enough, and then holds up the customer at gunpoint. For the reward of a 5-pound package of unknown contents, I don't think that would be common. It's also possible this service could have limits on the monetary value of what it will carry (so it may not send expensive jewelry, for instance).
     
  13. Bill_Bright

    Bill_Bright Registered Member

    Joined:
    Jun 29, 2007
    Posts:
    2,270
    Location:
    Nebraska, USA
    I am sorry then, as your imagination has failed you and sadly, it appears you have no desire to learn the facts and wish to remain ignorant about the subject. :( You should have seen the original 60 minutes report. If you had, or if you had read what I said above, you would have seen that USERS ARE DEMANDING instant gratification. This is EXACTLY why Amazon has Sunday delivery.

    Really, K_C, you should stop commenting until you know what you are talking about. You are demonstrating total ignorance of the topic! There are NO pilots. The drones are autonomous.

    See what I mean? You clearly have no clue what you are talking about! The report is about US delivery. Not UK. And even so, pretty sure you are wrong there anyway. My research shows a signature is only required in the UK on some expensive items, and/or when the purchaser requests it when ordering. Got a link to support your claim? I note the following from Amazon UK Help:
    At least try to use your imagination, okay? If a customer requests immediate delivery, they (1) are probably waiting for it, (2) got notice of estimated delivery time when ordering, and (3) likely get an email or text message within seconds of when it is dropped off.

    Again, you are commenting and making incorrect assumptions on something you have no clue about! :(
    Actually, that is most likely exactly the type delivery they are eventually going for. The CEO already noted that 85% of the products they currently sell and deliver weigh 5lbs or less. Delivery by an unmanned autonomous drone will cost MUCH LESS than delivery by a manned delivery truck.

    It sure does. But it would really be nice if all the participants of the conversation would take a few seconds to read up on the subject and learn the topic so it could be an intelligent and productive conversation based on "informed" opinions, instead of total and completely unnecessary ignorance. :(

    I am sorry. I am not trying to get on your case and don't mean to be belligerent, but if you are going to waste everyone's time telling us that you don't like something, at least take the time to know what it is you don't like. o_O

    ********
    A miniature helicopter with near silent electric motors!

    :) Exactly!

    That makes sense too - since, again, some expensive items do require a signature upon delivery, but not all, even in the UK.

    *******

    No the items won't but the drones will use multiple, redundant GPS systems to ensure proper delivery. But it should be noted the biggest obstacle today is safety, not delivery location accuracy. They don't want the drone landing on a child's head or a car parked in the driveway, or flying through electrical power lines. And of course, being so small and lightweight, weather, and particularly wind conditions will be a constant factor and concern.

    That said, delivery location accuracy is still a problem. For example, I live in the outer suburbs of a big city - almost "rural". When I plug in my home address into a GPS, I will be taken about 1/2 block up the street. So better cross-referencing between street addresses and geographic coordinates, at least in some areas, is still needed.
     
  14. Keyboard_Commando

    Keyboard_Commando Registered Member

    Joined:
    Mar 6, 2009
    Posts:
    690
    @Bill

    When I read your attempted petty forum points scoring by insisting an autonomous drone would be entering suburban areas to deliver the parcels ... I knew you're just trolling me. Like the idea of an autonomous drone isn't more ridiculous than a piloted drone LOL. Nice try though. I think we know who has thought this through.
     
  15. Bill_Bright

    Bill_Bright Registered Member

    Joined:
    Jun 29, 2007
    Posts:
    2,270
    Location:
    Nebraska, USA
    Trolling? Thought it through? You posted totally false information. You've put no thought or effort into learning or understanding the issues - and instead post falsehoods about "looming tyranny" and "media manipulation".

    You are right about one thing - "we" do know who is trolling and who has thought this through.

    I will now give any more of your inapplicable comments the attention they deserve.
     
    Last edited: Dec 5, 2013
  16. EASTER

    EASTER Registered Member

    Joined:
    Jul 28, 2007
    Posts:
    5,632
    Location:
    U.S.A. (South)
    EASTER's opinion.

    The base concept is amusingly practical from a service sales standpoint IMO.

    In a pre-charted contained grid (small mind you) from the distribution point (store) (microwarehouse), encompassing their set radius, would and should operate seamlessly enough, but....

    Weight restrictions, flight path collateral interference (trees, wind, birds, etc. would require some contingency planning.

    RESULT: Unknown. Might work, even Pizza Delivery etc. but probably should require an FAA license :D
     
  17. Bill_Bright

    Bill_Bright Registered Member

    Joined:
    Jun 29, 2007
    Posts:
    2,270
    Location:
    Nebraska, USA
    I don't believe "accidental" bird strikes will be a problem since the drones do not move that fast and are not totally silent. That does not mean a bird would not attack it, however, protecting its territory or nest. We have a lot very large predatory birds here in Eastern Nebraska and we often see smaller black birds running large hawks and eagles out of the area.

    For sure, FAA approval and licensing issues are the problem. Current laws already dictate the craft must remain in "line of sight".

    It has a 5lb weight limit right now, but again, that makes up 85% of Amazon products sold. That said, pretty sure a couple large deep dish pizzas may weight more that 5lbs! ;)

    I think your small charted grid scenario make sense, especially in a large city that has accurate geo-coordinate/street address charting.
     
  18. Keatah

    Keatah Registered Member

    Joined:
    Jan 13, 2011
    Posts:
    853
    Once in a while a company needs to make a statement and image. This is one of those times.

    This could work in small "manufactured" idyllic towns and upscale neighborhoods. If they develop the technology. Say another 10 years?

    One thing that would make it easy would having each house equipped with a small drone pad. In a dedicated safe area in the secure yard that has cameras and parent home all the time to watch for a package arrival.
     
  19. RollingThunder

    RollingThunder Registered Member

    Joined:
    Nov 21, 2013
    Posts:
    187
    Location:
    https://www.eff.org/issues/anonymity
    You took the words right out of my mouth a designated safe area for new upscale houses. With proper targeting a precision drop could be quite effective in that scenario. Also a string of community amazon drop facilities could also accomplish the tast. There are a number of ways to deal with the security issues with proper preparation. The key is if Amazon or any other company is going to absorb the cost of such an endeavor.

     
  20. whitedragon551

    whitedragon551 Registered Member

    Joined:
    Sep 30, 2008
    Posts:
    3,189
    Location:
    USA
    How will someone know when a package is delivered? Its not like someone knocking on the door to let you know its there. Its a pretty common occurrence for Fedex, UPS, etc. to drop a package at a side door and the consumer doesnt find the package for a few days.
     
  21. RollingThunder

    RollingThunder Registered Member

    Joined:
    Nov 21, 2013
    Posts:
    187
    Location:
    https://www.eff.org/issues/anonymity
    If they are going to design and build drones it seems logical that said delivery drones would be equipped with a camera in order to take pics right after the drop. That would handle at least part of the issue. Further, it is unlikely that a drone delivery would be the only choice for delivery method. It would more then likely be available for a higher fee schedule initially. So given the scenario for instance when a customer bought something and wanted a drone delivery for say three hours from time of order. The customer would then be on the lookout for the package as they are ordering out of either need or convenience. I see the whole scenario as doable with a few security precautions.

     
  22. Noob

    Noob Registered Member

    Joined:
    Nov 6, 2009
    Posts:
    6,468
    Hard to believe hahahaha
    Time will tell . . .
     
  23. RollingThunder

    RollingThunder Registered Member

    Joined:
    Nov 21, 2013
    Posts:
    187
    Location:
    https://www.eff.org/issues/anonymity
    Noob, I share your skepticism. Anyone sane has it nowadays. i tend to embrace the future. Yet, when I see how fast things like robotics and the Google Car equivalent are progressing one has to wonder is society ready? Skynet anyone?

     
  24. Bill_Bright

    Bill_Bright Registered Member

    Joined:
    Jun 29, 2007
    Posts:
    2,270
    Location:
    Nebraska, USA
    That's a good idea. Customers could "pre-register" for the service and receive a H symbol platform to put in a designated clear area. The platform could even contain a "homing beacon" of sorts. That may even help resolve the multi-unit apartment issue.

    Yeah, I don't see knowing when it has been delivered much of a problem. As I noted earlier, tracking will send an email or text to the customer. The only problem I see, as noted earlier, is the package will have to be left in an open area (middle of the driveway and closer to the street, for example) instead of stashed behind the bushes under the bay window (as often done here), under the door mat, or by a side door. The UPS drivers here usually ring the doorbell too.

    But again, if someone orders "right now" delivery, I would think they would be expecting it "any minute" and be watching for it - at least while it is still a new and novel thing.

    I agree but then again, if this "gets off the ground" :ouch: and "takes off" :ouch: :D this type delivery will cost much less, and be much easier on the environment than having a bunch of (expensive to employ) people driving expensive inefficient fossil fuel burning trucks all over town.
     
  25. chrisretusn

    chrisretusn Registered Member

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2004
    Posts:
    1,322
    Location:
    Philippines
    What if I lived in a high rise apartment in a metropolitan area on the 40th floor? How is that going to work. What if several folks in that same complex all order stuff, around the same time frame? Imagine several high rise residential towers all in the same area and hundreds ordering from Amazon.

    Cluster.... comes to mind here. :)
     
Loading...
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.