Destabilization & War Games: Spy Agency Wants To Predict Future Uprisings

apathy · Aug 26, 2011

http://stratrisks.com/geostrat/912

The DNI’s Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity office is soliciting research proposals for sophisticated software and other tools that can sort through “noisy data” to pull out meaningful patterns, according to an >agency solicitation posted Wednesday.

The agency is interested in developing “methods that leverage population behavior change in anticipation of, and in response to, events of interest [and] processing of publicly available data that reflect those population behavior changes,” the solicitation said.

The U.S. intelligence community has used publicly available or “open source” data since its inception as a supplement to satellite and signals intelligence and on-the-ground spying. It’s less common, though, for the intelligence community to look at spikes and valleys in data rather than the data itself, essentially focusing on “volume rather than depth” as Wednesday’s solicitation says.
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Personally I think there are far too many variables to properly nail down which regions may suffer instability.
Socio-economic and political indicators are somewhat obvious but other's are clearly defined.

Baserk · Aug 26, 2011

Interesting.
"...launching a new research program to root out trends in public data on news websites, blogs and social media to predict events like revolutions, humanitarian crises, economic collapses and disease outbreaks."

I thought intelligence agencies had country/region intel specialists for this kind of analysis.
Seems like another round of trading humint for sigint.
Hopefully this 'raw data process&analysis' is used as an addendum only and not as a replacement.

Searching_ _ _ · Aug 26, 2011

Doesn't this already exist in "The Web Bot Project"?
Why not buy a license for that software or just steal the source code and compensate the authors after the fact, or claim "National Security" and take it outright.

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