Fail! Top 5 Worst Tech Predictions Ever

My personal favourite:

"1. The iPhone has no chance.

The prediction: "There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance." --Steve Ballmer, Microsoft CEO in USA Today in April 2007
What really happened: The iPhone has captured 42 percent of the U.S. smartphone market share and 13.1 percent of the worldwide market." ~ op cit


Fail! Top 5 Worst Tech Predictions Ever ~ Netscape

You'd better polish that crystal ball of yours Ballmer ... LOL

 

regarding the market share of the iphone, the profit margin is way more higher than any other smartphone which gives those figures even more clout

 

Well not quite:

"What really happened: In case you didn't know, Marty Cooper is credited as being the father of the cell phone, and even he didn't foresee its potential. On the other hand, cell phones, which were the size of bricks, were outrageously expensive then. But he had no idea how cell phones would free people to be so mobile and still connected. Today, only 8 percent of adults have a landline phone and no mobile phone."

And they are becoming the size of bricks again.
I don't know what 8% where, but that's not true globally.

"The prediction: "I predict the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse." --Robert Metcalfe, co-inventor of Ethernet, in InfoWorld in 1995

It happened in 2001, in a slightly different manner.

The prediction: "Remote shopping, while entirely feasible, will flop because women like to get out of the house, like to handle merchandise, like to be able to change their minds." --TIME magazine in 1966

How many women are shopping online vs. men buying gadgets and pr0n? If you check any local mall/outlet, it's crammed with people, mostly of the opposite sex.

Mrk

 

Here was an oldie but goodie: The Betamax was going to dominate the VCR era over VHS. I was fooled by that one. Bought into it, and several months later couldn't find new movie releases in the format.

 

Here's one: I've noticed a lot of back to school guides are advising against portable storage in favor of cloud storage. Do you guys predict consumers will abandoned portable storage mediums? I'm not entirely convinced, since cheap users like myself tend to maximize free storage across multiple providers. It is a lot more hassle to sign into multiple cloud storage accounts than to just tether or plug in a portable storage device. Obviously less conservative users would simply buy more storage stick with their investment. But do you guys think people are leaning this way?

Here's another: Do you guys anticipate that portable disk players and dedicated music storage devices (mp3 players, iPods, etc.) will be substituted by the widespread adoption of all-in-one solutions such as phablets, tablets, and smartphones? These devices certainly have the capability of storing your music and movies, while allowing you to stream and purchase content on the go. That seems a lot more convenient than purchasing it and syncing or transferring it to your device?

 

Cloud use will probably increase as the ecosystem matures and prices drop but portable storage would be there to stay.

Portable disc players might fade imo as more people opt to stream video content while on-the-go. Home dvd players probably will stay.

As for dedicated music players, tough call. I'm already seeing less use of them as more people use their smartphones as replacements; 1 less gadget to carry and for cost-conscious users, 1 less price-tag. Not to mention 3rd-party music players available on Android for e.g.

Of course, these are my predictions. Even if they fail, I'm not famous enough to be quoted.

 

Interesting article.

 

"Today, only 8 percent of adults have a landline phone and no mobile phone."

I'm so happy to be a part of this 8%

 

Hahahahaha actually i find cellphones useful, things like tracking etc.

Here where i live, crimes have soared and cellphones allow me to track people i know in case they dont answer me for a half a day. No, im not stalking anyone, they are allowed to look for me if i dont answer or call back for a long time either. S&%t is messed up here where i live.

 

wow noob where are you?? sad to hear that

 

I have asked that before but he never reveals it

 

Hahahahaha im pretty sure its not that hard to find out. I think i've said where im from here in Wilders . . . well not exactly.
Just search for it, it was a few years ago.

I'd guess the easiest way would be getting my IP and there you have where i live. (Country)

 

I actually think dedicated music players could stick around because of price issues, but kind of for the opposite reason. I see the more expensive stuff like iPods with lots of storage going away, but cheap players with less storage staying. I noticed in a running forum that many of them don't like to run with a phone (it's too bulky and they're only getting bigger, and it's a potential distraction). They like something tiny and light.

As for private storage, I can't speak for others but I have no plans whatsoever to abandon it in favor of storing everything online.

Now, he mentioned it was in a back-to-school guide, and there I could see it being useful if it's for classwork, as shuffling a USB stick between school and home would be less convenient. The kid might forget to bring it, it could get broken or lost, it could transfer malware, etc.

Heck, if it's one of these the school might confiscate it and suspend the kid.