I think the general public is tired (or non-plussed) with some of the features that have been put into PC's these last few years. And smartphones and tablets just simply work. There's always fighting with settings on the PC. So the consumer landscape has changed. Not so much industrial or govt.
Seriously? My PC is not laden with spyware. And it is not hard to keep it that way. My PC is not hot. Heavy? Okay. But so are my monitors and multi-function printing device - but I don't care. I have a sturdy desk. Spyware? You got to be kidding!!!! Your cell phone knows and reports to who knows whom exactly where are you are standing to within a few meters. It knows where you have been and how long you were there. It knows the direction you are heading and even knows which aisle in Walmart you are standing in! At best, with a PC all "they"(?) know is your PoP (point of presence) - where your ISP connects you to the Internet. In my case, that is 10 miles away in the next town over! Constant upgrading with subscriptions? Really? Every time I turn around my cell phone is wanting to update multiple apps, or the OS itself. With careful homework, you don't need any software that requires a subscription to do anything, or most importantly, stay safe and secure with a PC. My PC is not going to fall out of my pocket or off my desk and shatter the screen. My PC is not likely to grow legs and run off, and it will never get left behind. There are many advantages to cell phones but nothing you mention is one of them.
In addition to what Bill said, it seems most people upgrade their phones every 2 years. You're telling me people are upgrading their laptops/desktops more than every 2 years?
Yes, the mobile devices are probably the culprit in the relative decline of PC sales. But I don't share the gloomy predictions. I believe the PC (and particularly the desktop) will always have a place; maybe on a smaller form and in lesser numbers but it'll be around for long yet.
I have not seen any "gloomy prediction" that says PCs will go away completely. They will always have a place with enthusiast and office users - at least for many years to come. And this is because the full sized keyboard is still the best HID (human interface device) to put word from brain to printed text. Voice recognition is great for dictation applications but you cannot have a room full of people all talking at once into their computers. This biggest culprit, for sure. But Microsoft's misguided blunder with W8 and the forced upon us "metro" UI and tiles really hurt Microsoft and PC sales too - a blow they have yet to recover from.
Actually, I believe it will end in October 2025, and thought so for months now. Straight from the horse's mouth: http://windows.microsoft.com/en-ca/windows/lifecycle Long live Windows 365!
Yeah, but there seems to be much speculation on what that (and the 3 ***) really means for Windows 10 because Microsoft has announced too that W10 will be last Windows and just constantly evolve. If you note that list, all the other versions of Windows just say their version (XP, Vista, 7, but with W10, it says "released in July 2015". So the assumption will be the EOL dates will shift as service packs and/or other major revisions that update the Windows 10 "baseline" are released.
Um when the server(s) in the cloud go down and business can not get done we shall see how happy people are that relied upon their so called smart phone. Also how many know where the server(s) are located and who controls them? Always, Wildman
This really is not a problem because the big providers use fault-tolerant, redundant mirrored sites (not just mirrored servers, but entire sites) scattered about the world that can take over in real-time should an entire site go down. I don't see the location being a problem either. Who controls them, on the other hand - could be. Especially if government overlords in China are involved.
There is something to that - but by far, large corporate and government buyers are the biggest drivers of PC sales. Since W10 is here, and more and more hardware will support only W10 (or Linux) they have to factor in other costs besides just PC replacement - including some hardware and software upgrades, as well as training.
No. Consumers get frustrated and relegate the PC to mundane tasks which are not hardware intensive and thus their rigs last longer.
Modular PCs patent ... "According to the patent description, it could allow Microsoft to develop a new device that would let customers build their own PCs using parts they buy separately. As compared to the traditional PCs that you can already build with your own parts, this one would come with stackable components, so it would be very easy to remove and replace them, thus appealing to inexperienced users too." http://news.softpedia.com/news/microsoft-now-interested-in-building-modular-pcs-500464.shtml I know this is a little OT, but it is an interesting patent. The big question is: How will the MS OEM Partners and non-partners respond to this ?
What? Sorry but that is just nonsense. You are suggesting cell phones are better suited for hardware intensive tasks! The only thing I can do easier on my cell phone is send a text message and take a photo - oh, and what are those called? Oh yeah - make a phone call! As far as modular PCs, that will only take off if the industry can agree on a form factor standard like the current PC industry has done with the ATX Form Factor. If they cannot, then it will remain proprietary with little to no competition and higher prices.
Razor and Apple have been down the modular PC road and both have retreated. MS should also retreat IMO. They will add so much margin, it will be laughable. I was taken aback by this patent and was really alarmed that they as an OEM (with a poor record introducing and handling hardware) would have even considered it. Then again, maybe it is just all about owning a patent.
Sales are down because I have been using the same laptop since 2009 and the same desktop since I built it in 2011. And they are both still better than the average machine. And worst year ever? Starting when? I bet they still sold more PCs in the last year than they did pre Windows 95. I hate sensationalistic headlines.
Yeap, just look at it from the enthusiast market's point of view, there's a huge array of choice for components form the cheapest to the high end. See this snapshot from a specialized shop here in my home town, the dearest GPUs are selling like hot cakes as you can see from the red stocks.
I think that is it. Me too. If a company is "projected" to increase sales by 10% and they only go up by 9% all of a sudden the press (and stock markets ) would have the company in an out-of-control death dive. It's like the oil companies are killing the economy because they are only making $billions in profits instead of $billions and $billions.
Yes, the USA is a bit cheaper for high end machines. BTW, I forgot the 5 in 1 Media Card Reader (integrated), it costs 25 euro. You miss the point, it was just an experiment to see what a high end system would cost, that's why I chose a second SSD and soundcard. But you're not going to tell me that it truly costs around 1300 to 1400 bucks to manufacture such a box. I've found a couple of systems, and I think they are all overpriced. It seems like high end GPU's are way too expensive. http://www.bestbuy.com/site/alienwa...ve-black/4931400.p?id=bb4931400&skuId=4931400 http://www.bestbuy.com/site/asus-de...gray/4669500.p?id=1219794341567&skuId=4669500 http://www.bestbuy.com/site/hp-envy...lver/4583952.p?id=1219773221215&skuId=4583952 http://www.bestbuy.com/site/acer-as...ve-black/4816200.p?id=bb4816200&skuId=4816200
I would say PC sales are in decline sort for "all of the above" reasons... Win8 / Win10 do sort of suck. Functionally they are ok, but few users feel especially passionate about them. I would suggest most corporations are probably still on Win 7. Big PC vendors like Dell still ship Win 7 for business PCs. Microsoft is trying to be everything to everyone -- consumers / corporate users / tablets / desktops / gamers / etc -- and are sort of alienating everyone a bit. Casual consumers are increasingly utilizing smartphones and tablets for uses that previously would have involved a PC / laptop... checking email, surfing the web, Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, Messaging, Instagram, SnapChat, etc. Non-gamers (and non-scientists, etc) have largely been satisfied with PC / laptop performance levels achieved around 5 years ago and are generally replacing only when hardware fails. This contrasts with, say, the 90s and early 2000s when every 2 years a *much* better PC was coming out... graphics, CPU performance, drive capacity, etc. Gamers still like their PCs and high-end GPUs, of course, but GPU pricing is forcing some diehard PC gamers to rethink the console market, and for many the Xbox One and PS4 are more than sufficient. Also, arguably the game market seems less distinct between PC & consoles than it did a few years back (i.e., most of them are the exact same titles ported to each platform with the only significant distinction being do you like your shooter with keyboard & mouse or "on the couch with a controller"). Corporations have been in a cost efficiency mode for the past 8 years or more, and have seen that they can easily cut CapEx associated with employees by deferring PC / laptop replacement by an additional year... replacing laptops after 3 years now when it used to be 2, replacing desktops after 4 years when it used to be 3, etc.
I disagree with the 2nd half of that. That is, most W10 users like W10. And note the big PC makers will so no longer be able to sell W7 systems because new hardware only supports W10. 8 years or more? More like forever. Note that one of the primary reasons XP had so many security issues was because big corporations (Microsoft's largest user base - by far) insisted and demanded XP provide legacy hardware and software support (even over security) just so the big corporations would not have to spend fortunes (again! - as they did from DOS to W95/98/98SE) on new computers, peripherals and software. Note that Microsoft wanted to move forward and focus on modern and future hardware support AND Microsoft wanted to include anti-virus code in XP even though that would prevent some legacy HW and SW from working. But big corporations said no - and that they had their own security professionals to protect them. At the same time, Norton, McAfee, CA, TrendMicros and others whined and cried to Congress and the EU demanding that MS was trying to rule the world (they were, but not the point) and that it was their job to rid the world of malware (we see how well that worked! ). So Congress and the EU ordered Microsoft to remove that code to avoid any sense of "monopoly". And also at the same time, broadband to the home exploded beyond anyone's expectations and the badguys found a nearly unrestricted path to the end of the rainbow. Of course Microsoft got blamed for a lack of security - with that blame fueled by the IT press seeking sensationalized headlines. But the reality is, it was the badguys who created this security mess and the anti-malware industry's failure to do anything about it. And if you think about it, why would they? They have no incentive to rid the world of malware as that would put them out of business! This is EXACTLY why Congress and the EU have been mum about Microsoft including extensive security and very effective anti-malware code in W10. But I digress. So anyway, big companies never want to retool when their current HW and SW still works. But times have changed and security trumps all. Plus, the hardware makers have made huge advances in the state-of-the-art that include security features that can only be supported by W10. UEFI BIOS is a prime example. What will definitely help the big corporations move to W10 is the DoD's announcement they will push to migrate 4 million systems to W10 within the next year.
Very interesting post, and I believe all of those are valid points. I do think that GPU's are ridiculously expensive, you might as well buy a PlayStation or Xbox as you said. I noticed that as soon if you want to have a more powerful GPU and CPU plus a bigger SSD, the price of desktops all of a sudden rockets.
I found a couple of new machines, the site is in Dutch but you can scroll down for the specs. It seems like the main problem is the price of the GPU and SSD. The Asus is way too expensive, the Lenovo is a good deal. The HP should have offered a better GPU. http://www.computerstore.nl/product/698737/category-122622/lenovo-ideacentre-y700-90df003fny.html http://www.computerstore.nl/product/679860/category-122622/asus-m32cd-nl011t.html http://www.computerstore.nl/product/696967/category-122622/hp-pavilion-550-275nd.html
It seems that HP will launch a new gaming desktop PC line, but of course it will be way too expensive. Companies like Acer, Asus, Dell and HP should be ashamed of themselves. Currently, only Lenovo is offering good deals. http://store.hp.com/us/en/ContentView?storeId=10151&catalogId=10051&langId=-1&eSpotName=omendesktop
